Reconstructing missing information in epidemic spreading on contact networks can be essential in prevention and containment strategies. For instance, identifying and warning infective but asymptomatic individuals (e.g., manual contact tracing) helped contain outbreaks in the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of possible epidemic cascades typically grows exponentially with the number of individuals involved. The challenge posed by inference problems in the epidemics processes originates from the difficulty of identifying the almost negligible subset of those compatible with the evidence (for instance, medical tests). Here we present a new generative neural networks framework that can sample the most probable infection cascades compatible with observations. Moreover, the framework can infer the parameters governing the spreading of infections. The proposed method obtains better or comparable results with existing methods on the patient zero problem, risk assessment, and inference of infectious parameters in synthetic and real case scenarios like spreading infections in workplaces and hospitals.

We consider the problem of learning the weighted edges of a mixture of two graphs from epidemic cascades. This is a natural setting in the context of social networks, where a post created by one user will not spread on the same graph if it is about basketball or if it is about politics. However, very little is known about whether this problem is solvable. To the best of our knowledge, we establish the first conditions under which this problem can be solved, and provide conditions under which the problem is provably not solvable. When the conditions are met, i.e. when the graphs are connected, with distinct edges, and have at least three edges, we give an efficient algorithm for learning the weights of both graphs with almost optimal sample complexity (up to log factors). We extend the results to the setting in which the priors of the mixture are unknown and obtain similar guarantees.